Oil Markets Move on Trump's Iran Reversal
The price of Brent crude fell to $83 per barrel from a Friday high of $91 after President Trump announced he had called off a planned attack on Iran, saying the move was 'subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.' The roughly 9% single-session drop is one of the sharpest oil moves of the year and landed before New York markets opened Monday.
Trump framed the reversal around diplomatic progress. 'We were all set to go,' he said, according to the BBC. 'The reason they asked is they think there's a deal. There's a deal on Hormuz, and there will be a deal on the nuclear.'
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed on state television that Iran and Oman were 'close to making a deal for the administration of the Strait of Hormuz,' describing a proposed route that would 'respect the sovereign rights of both sides.' He added, however, that the strait 'will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th' — the day the conflict began — a caveat that leaves the shape of any final agreement unclear.
As of Monday morning, few concrete details about the deal's structure had been made public.
Wall Street Holds Its Ground
U.S. equity futures were up before the opening bell even as stocks slumped globally, with investors focused on a heavy earnings calendar rather than geopolitical noise. Palantir was up 2.83% in premarket trading ahead of its Q2 call; SpaceX and AMD were also marginally higher ahead of their Tuesday reports.
On the rates front, traders appear to have fully priced in a Fed rate hike in September. CME FedWatch put the odds of a hike at 65% Monday morning. ING's Chris Turner noted: 'It seems the only way the Fed can avoid hiking in September is if the U.S. data is poor enough.' The consensus expectation for Friday's non-farm payrolls report sits at 75,000 to 80,000 new jobs — 'probably not quite weak enough to rule out a Fed hike,' Turner said.
JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls, and Friday's NFP report will all feed into that calculus before the September meeting.
Déjà Vu on the Diplomatic Front
Market analysts and reporters covering the story noted a familiar pattern: this is not the first time Trump has threatened military action against Iran, not the first time he has called off those strikes, and not the first time he has declared a deal imminent. Each cycle has moved oil prices, and each has so far ended without a signed agreement.
CEO Times take: The oil market did exactly what free markets do — it priced new information instantly, shaving nearly $8 off Brent before American traders poured their first cup of coffee. That is the system working. The deeper question is whether the diplomatic pattern holds: a credible, enforceable deal on Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program would be a genuine win for global energy stability and American leverage in the region. Marco Rubio's State Department has made maximum-pressure diplomacy its signature; the world is watching whether this cycle ends differently. Until a deal is signed and verified, the $83 handle on Brent is a hope trade, not a settlement — and the bond market's 65% September-hike odds suggest the Fed will not be waiting on Tehran to make its next move.
