The pause that moved markets
President Donald Trump received military strike plans against Iran on Thursday but declined to give the green light, according to sources cited by Axios. Friday passed without a U.S. Central Command announcement of a new attack — ending a nearly two-week consecutive streak of airstrikes on the Islamic Republic.
U.S. forces remain postured for major combat operations, but Trump has issued no orders to move in that direction, Axios reported. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump's own words
Speaking to reporters Friday, Trump laid out three options: continue strikes, go bigger by 'knocking out everything they have,' or pursue what he called a 'smarter strategy' of making a deal. He indicated Iran prefers the third path.
'They want to make a deal. I just don't think they're ready yet, but they do want to make a deal,' Trump said, adding that both sides are currently negotiating.
The restraint comes one week after Iran killed American troops in Jordan — an event Trump had previously framed as a red line for restarting all-out war. While the U.S. did retaliate with additional airstrikes following those casualties, they remained well short of the widespread campaign conducted earlier in the conflict.
Hormuz: the commercial chokepoint
Iran's attacks on commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — including ships using a Central Command-defended route near Oman's coast — have effectively closed the narrow waterway again, cutting off oil supplies to global markets and pushing crude prices higher.
Omani officials traveled to Tehran on Friday for talks on a new arrangement that would reopen the strait. Sources told Axios that negotiations have made progress and that an Oman-Iran agreement could be reached over the weekend.
The war widens anyway
The diplomatic window has not stopped the conflict from expanding. Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent fighter jets to bomb Iran — their first such strikes — according to the Wall Street Journal, following earlier attacks by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia is simultaneously fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels who have vowed to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping. Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea this week; Saudi Arabia responded by striking the Yemeni port city of Hodeida.
The prospect of simultaneous chokepoint closures — Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, Bab el-Mandeb at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Black Sea where Ukrainian attacks have hit Russian fuel tankers — has dragged down stocks and bonds. Oil market analyst Rory Johnston wrote on X Friday that Trump may simply 'leave everyone else with the mess,' asking at what level of market stress — crude prices, pump prices, an equity rout — he would be forced to exit the conflict entirely.
CEO Times read
The numbers come first: closed chokepoints mean higher energy costs, and higher energy costs are a tax on every American business and household. Trump's instinct to exhaust diplomacy before escalating further is sound — but the market is already voting, and it is not voting for prolonged uncertainty.
A durable Hormuz deal brokered through Oman would do more for American prosperity than another week of airstrikes that, by the reporting here, did little to change Iranian tactics. Capital rewards clear rules and open sea lanes. The administration's leverage is real; the question is whether Tehran will price it correctly before the next strike order is signed.
