The numbers come first. Since May, the Trump Trade Index, a Ned Davis Research basket of Trump-aligned funds, has slumped about 16%, erasing the year's early gains. Energy inflation, the U.S.–Iran conflict, and escalating tariffs did the damage. Capital rewards clear rules, and it is voting against whiplash.
Consider the backdrop to this week's contested Federal Reserve meeting, the most fractious yet under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Inflation has topped the 2% target for five straight years, oil is surging, and Wall Street prices 34.2% odds of a quarter-point hike. Markets can absorb tight money or loose money; what they cannot price is a policy path that changes by the headline.
The Real Bottleneck Is Not on the Chip
While Washington fixates on semiconductors, the binding constraint sits in plain sight. Bechtel CEO Brendan Bechtel warns the country needs 140,000 more electricians, welders, and pipefitters by 2030 to build the physical infrastructure of the AI era. That workforce does not yet exist. The shortage is of skilled trades, not silicon, and no tariff schedule can conjure a pipefitter.
“No tariff schedule can conjure a pipefitter, and no rate cut can wire a data center.”
Chip sovereignty, meanwhile, is being contested by private capital, not decree. Samsung has locked in a $200 billion, five-year contract with Broadcom running through 2030, built on 2-nanometer-and-below process technology, a direct challenge to Taiwan's TSMC. That is how free enterprise pursues advantage: with earnings on the line, long horizons, and terms both parties can trust.
The contrast instructs. Where rules are predictable, capital commits for a decade; where they lurch, it retreats within a quarter. Productivity, margins, and the taxpayer's future all depend on which regime governs. Power leaves a paper trail, and so does policy: the 16% drawdown is Washington's, not the market's, failure to keep its word.
The remedy is neither novel nor partisan. Set durable tariff terms, let the Fed defend price stability without theater, and clear the way for the tradesmen and fabricators who build real leverage. Do that, and capital will return on its own. The market has already voted; it is waiting only for the rules to hold.