The numbers come first. Robinhood reported record revenue of $1.31 billion for the second quarter of 2026, topping analyst estimates that ranged from $1.25 billion to $1.28 billion. Earnings per share landed at $0.62, a sharp beat against the $0.42 consensus. The market rewarded the print early — HOOD shares opened closer to $92 — before a broader selloff tied to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady pulled the stock back to around $89.
Prediction Markets Become a Pillar
The standout driver was Robinhood's prediction market business, where total contract volume jumped from 9 billion in Q1 to 13 billion in Q2. Revenue from the segment rose from roughly $104 million in the first quarter to $156 million in Q2. According to Bill Birmingham, managing director at REX Financial, that translates to revenue of 1.15 cents per event contract.
The growth has been noticed at the top of the industry. The CEO of Kalshi — until recently the clear category leader — publicly cited Robinhood as its chief rival, a signal of how quickly the competitive landscape has shifted.
CFO Shiv Verma, speaking on a call with reporters, said the company is actively working to lower the spread it collects from users, particularly on less popular bets. To do that, Robinhood has been routing more transactions through Rothera, an in-house offering it manages with market maker Susquehanna, which carries lower fees. Previously, the company had relied on Kalshi and other third-party firms to operate the back end of its prediction market products, sharing a cut of the revenue in the process. Bringing more of that infrastructure in-house is a straightforward margin play.
Gold Subscriptions and Deposits Set Records
Beyond prediction markets, Robinhood's Gold subscription service posted 39% year-over-year growth, reaching 4.8 million customers. Customer deposits hit a record $22 billion. Verma highlighted the company's expense discipline as a key reason Robinhood now holds what he called an 'enviable position' on free cash flow.
Crypto Remains a Drag
Not every line was green. Robinhood's cryptocurrency business brought in $100 million for the quarter, a 38% decline from a year ago. The broader crypto market remains in a prolonged slump, and the segment that once supplied a meaningful share of Robinhood's top line has become a consistent headwind.
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Robinhood's Q2 results are a case study in what happens when a company finds a new product category and moves fast. Prediction markets — once a regulatory gray zone — are now a nine-figure revenue line that has rattled the incumbent. The in-house Rothera routing deal with Susquehanna shows management is thinking about margin structure, not just volume. Free enterprise rewards that kind of discipline. The Fed's rate hold may have clipped the stock's single-session pop, but the underlying business just printed a record. Capital tends to find its way back to earnings like these.
