The Economic War Is Working — and Iran Knows It
President Trump's pivot from sustained bombing to a naval blockade is squeezing Iran where it hurts most: its oil revenues. After 40 days of heavy bombardment and two additional weeks of daily strikes, the U.S. is now relying on economic pressure to force Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore order to global energy markets.
The strategy is producing results. Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, recently admitted that the U.S. blockade will eventually inflict more economic damage than actual war — a remarkable concession from inside the regime's own commercial orbit. He urged Tehran to do 'whatever it takes' to end the blockade, 'whether through negotiation, supplication, threats, or even war.'
Tehran Shifts to Attack Mode
The regime, however, is not sitting still. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran has shifted from a defensive stance to a 'fully offensive' one, citing the stalemate in U.S.-Iran talks. Unless Washington implements the June ceasefire deal within a few weeks, Iran will launch a 'timely and precise' attack to break the blockade, the official warned.
'Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region,' the official added.
Sources told The Wall Street Journal that Arab intelligence detected preparations for a wider war, including the deployment of Iranian commanders, weapons, and intelligence to regional militias. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has drawn up plans for further escalation — sabotaging internet cables in the Persian Gulf, fomenting unrest in neighboring states with large Shia populations, and even a potential ground assault in Kuwait.
Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government, told the Journal: 'There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun. What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of salami-slicing tactics — limited, incremental escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation.'
Vulnerabilities on Both Sides
Iran's conventional forces were decimated by U.S.-Israeli bombardment earlier in the conflict, but Tehran has since developed new missiles better at evading air defenses, making U.S. military assets and allied oil infrastructure across the region more vulnerable. Critically, the U.S. military has expended much of its interceptor stockpile — a depletion that reportedly factored into Trump's decision to call off a major re-escalation.
The U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is also struggling with mental health and supply issues after a record-long deployment at sea. A replacement carrier is en route, but other vessels performing blockade operations face similar logistical strain.
The Numbers Come First
The blockade is working as economic warfare — and that is precisely why Iran is threatening to break it by force. Trump's calculation that sustained pressure, rather than open-ended combat, could bend Tehran's calculus is sound in principle: economic pain concentrates minds faster than rubble. The admission from Hariri that the blockade will eventually outpace the damage of war is the clearest signal yet that the strategy has teeth.
But leverage cuts both ways. Iran's improving missile capabilities and America's depleted interceptor stocks mean the window for a clean economic victory may be narrowing. Capital markets exposed to Persian Gulf energy flows — and every American consumer who fills a tank — have a direct stake in whether Washington holds the line or is dragged back into major combat. The regime is betting that U.S. resolve has limits. The Trump administration's next move will tell the market whether it does.
