Saudi Arabia is collecting a larger oil bill even as the Iran war has disrupted shipments and damaged infrastructure.
The numbers come first. Saudi Arabia shipped about 7 million barrels of oil per day before the war, less than 4 million in March and April, and 5.5 million this month, according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. At the same time, Brent crude futures have risen roughly 75% this year and are trading at about $107 per barrel.
That price move has changed the math. Brooks estimated that Saudi Arabia's annualized export revenues are now at $210 billion, up from $150 billion before the war, a windfall equal to more than 6% of GDP. He wrote that the Saudi kingdom is 'perhaps the only winner in this war.'
The kingdom's export routes have also started to reopen. Bloomberg reported Monday that Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports from its East-West Pipeline, with flows reaching about 3.5 million barrels a day. That remains below full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, but it marks a recovery after Iran-backed militias in Iraq damaged the pipeline and forced a temporary shutdown.
Saudi exports through the Red Sea also have resumed in part. The U.S. military's protection of tankers has helped restore much of the oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Saudi Arabia to pivot back toward the Persian Gulf after attacks halted exports via the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia is also poised to export oil from its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu as the pipeline comes back online.
Still, the risks remain obvious. The Houthis have solidified control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint in the Red Sea, and the kingdom remains vulnerable to future attacks from Iran or its allies in the region. Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remain in limbo, and some on Wall Street are predicting the war could drag on deep into 2027.
The market has already voted on the bigger picture: higher crude prices are cushioning Saudi state finances even as conflict raises operational risk. That is a reminder that energy markets punish disruption with higher prices long before diplomats find a solution.
For taxpayers and consumers, the lesson is familiar. When conflict narrows supply, capital and cash flow quickly concentrate where barrels can still move. Saudi Arabia is benefiting from that reality now, but the same volatility is also a tax on every economy that depends on stable energy flows.
