Kalshi is drawing one of the market’s most aggressive private valuations yet.
PitchBook’s 46-page report says the prediction-market company should be valued at $30.4 billion based on expected 2028 adjusted earnings. In a bearish case, the firm values Kalshi at $22.8 billion. In a bullish case, the figure rises to $42.1 billion.
The startup was valued at $22 billion in its $1 billion Series F in May, and investors are now looking ahead to a possible initial public offering as soon as next year. Kalshi and rival Polymarket have both raised staggering amounts of money since prediction markets surged in popularity in 2024.
PitchBook forecasts Kalshi revenue will reach $6.4 billion by 2030 and adjusted earnings will hit $3.7 billion. Analyst Franco Granda said Kalshi holds an enviable competitive position, arguing that Polymarket has lost some of its early lead among U.S. consumers because it chose a more cautious revenue strategy and is spending more on promotions.
'Third parties will pick up crumbs here and there but the window of opportunity for people to get in has passed,' Granda said.
The report also says Kalshi is positioned to widen its lead through partnerships with distribution platforms like Robinhood, market makers like Susquehanna, and other tie-ups.
Still, the market has not priced in a clean path. Kalshi is a private company and does not publish its financials, so PitchBook relied in part on estimates, company API data, internal data, Dune databases, government filings, management commentary, and public peers’ disclosures. The firm’s bullish reading also depends on legal assumptions that may prove optimistic.
That legal risk is central. Kalshi and Polymarket argue they are regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not by state licensing regimes. That structure has let them offer products to customers as young as 18, versus 21 for sports books, and avoid state taxes.
The same structure is now under pressure. The company’s case is stronger for prediction markets tied to elections and entertainment than for sports, and states and Indian tribes have sued Kalshi over allegedly offering unlicensed sports gambling. PitchBook said the sports dispute threatens Kalshi’s main source of fees, with sports accounting for 69.9% of event fees year to date, rising to 82.4% when including exotics.
The issue is being litigated in dozens of states, and courts are for the most part ruling against the company.
The numbers come first. Kalshi’s valuation story is not just about growth; it is about regulation, taxes and who gets to write the rules. If federal oversight holds and the company keeps its edge, capital may keep rewarding it. If not, the market’s latest darling could discover how quickly a legal cloud can erase a premium built on expectation.
For investors, the lesson is simple: free enterprise scales fastest when the rules are clear. When the administrative state and the states themselves start contesting the boundaries, margins and market value can move just as fast in the other direction.
