A long-term Anthropic backer is projecting a post-IPO trading value of $2.3 trillion to $2.4 trillion, which would put the company ahead of SpaceX. The investor told Fortune he expects the IPO shares to be priced at around $1.8 trillion, below Anthropic’s reported target of $2 trillion, and then to see a strong 'pop' once trading begins.
By comparison, SpaceX closed on its opening day at a market cap of $2.1 trillion and is currently hovering at $2.03 trillion. The investor said the higher range reflects Anthropic’s underlying worth, not just a short-lived surge after the listing.
The bet is rooted in Anthropic’s enterprise focus. The investor said he first backed the company because it was 'less consumer-oriented and more of an enterprise play' and because it made 'a huge hit with Claude.' He also said Anthropic is viewed as the 'top name in foundation models' and the 'premier foundation model-builder,' which he sees as a major advantage in enterprise business.
According to the same investor, Anthropic has around 80% of its revenue from enterprise customers. Fortune also reported that OpenAI is growing fast in that space, with the business side reaching around half of total sales. The investor said OpenAI and Anthropic are both strong companies, but he thinks Anthropic is 'a little less chaotic.'
He also pointed to leadership and culture. 'I find that Anthropic had a little more soul than OpenAI. Dario Amodei is pretty principled about the kind of company he wants,' he said.
The same backer believes Anthropic could reach profitability faster than SpaceX. He said SpaceX is 'basically a play on Elon Musk' and added that the SpaceX story 'will take a while to play out.' By contrast, he said Anthropic is 'not a story that takes a lot of time to play out' and called it 'the fastest-growing company in history.'
He also said prices may come down because of open models and that 'not all will be done on foundation,' but he expects usage to keep rising. 'Anthropic can afford to slow down and still have huge value,' he said. 'It will continue to be one of these names where people say, I feel like I have to own it.'
The market has already voted on the broader AI race: investors are treating frontier models as strategic assets, not just software products. For capital, that means the reward goes to companies that can convert hype into durable enterprise margins.
But a trillion-dollar valuation also means the burden shifts to public shareholders. If Anthropic lists near $1.8 trillion and trades toward $2.4 trillion, the company will need extraordinary earnings growth to justify that price. In free enterprise, the market can crown a winner quickly — and demand proof even faster.
