The balance in U.S. housing has shifted toward buyers, at least on price. Redfin said 21.1% of home sellers with active listings cut their asking price in the four weeks ending Sept. 20, the highest share for this time of year since it began tracking the figure in 2022.
Among the 50 most populous metro areas, Denver posted the highest share of active listings with a price cut at 30.9%. Indianapolis followed at 29.9%. San Antonio was at 26.8%, Dallas at 26.6%, and Austin at 26.1%.
At the other end, San Francisco had the lowest share at 9.6%. Newark was next at 12.2%, then Chicago at 13.3%, New York at 13.6%, and Miami at 13.7%.
Redfin said the national share of sellers cutting prices is only slightly above last year’s 19.8%, but that does not capture the full picture. Some would-be sellers are holding off on listing. Others are pulling homes off the market rather than accept less. Still others are pricing realistically from the start, which reduces the need for a later markdown.
Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% in August, according to Redfin’s estimates. That was the widest gap in records dating back to 2013.
Not everyone agrees with Redfin’s label. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said she would not necessarily call the mid-Atlantic a buyer’s market because inventory remains tight and prices stay near record highs in many local markets. She also said more sellers in the region are cutting their asking prices.
For buyers who need a mortgage, the pressure is still real. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.28% as of Oct. 1, according to Freddie Mac. That was the highest level since November 2023 and up from 6.34% a year earlier.
Michael Reher, an associate professor of finance at UC San Diego’s Rady School of Management, said all-cash buyers tend to have an edge in periods of uncertainty and illiquidity. He cited research finding that all-cash buyers pay about 10% less on average than buyers who rely on a mortgage, because sellers will often discount to avoid the risk that financing falls through.
The numbers come first. Sellers are being forced to negotiate, and buyers with cash are in the strongest position. But the market is still punishing anyone who has to borrow, because 7% mortgage rates turn a cheaper home into a bigger monthly burden. Capital rewards clear rules, and right now the rule is simple: liquidity wins.
