Middle East crude exports have rebounded to about 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of prewar levels, according to JPMorgan. Goldman Sachs put Persian Gulf exports even higher, at 19 million barrels per day, while Kpler said Gulf crude exports have recovered to prewar levels, with the September figure at least 16.5 million barrels.
Kpler said the recovery has changed how oil moves. Around 40% of crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE use more pipeline routes. Of the crude that crossed Hormuz in August, more than 70% changed tankers offshore.
The rebound has come while the U.S. naval blockade keeps Iran’s exports at essentially zero. The report says President Donald Trump and others in his administration have touted the numbers, saying the U.S. now controls the strait and predicting Iran’s economy will soon come completely undone.
But the same report also says analysts have warned that the Iranian regime, facing an existential threat to its rule, could re-escalate the war and reassert its grip on the oil trade. Commercial ship attacks in the Gulf have risen in recent days, and while the U.S. military is protecting ships and has degraded Iran’s ability to target them, drones and missiles still find their marks on occasion.
Those attacks have not stopped all tankers from transiting, but they keep shipping and insurance costs high and prevent a full return to normal. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, said Iran’s leverage is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed to the ability to destroy oil infrastructure such as drilling and refining capacity, and said Iran could escalate if 'Trump isn’t feeling enough pain to take the diplomatic off-ramps being put in front of him.'
The report says Trump rejected Tehran’s offer to restart talks with a seven-day ceasefire that would fully reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade and unfreezing assets. It also says sources told the Wall Street Journal that Trump expects to start bombing Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections are over, while the Pentagon is deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group, which includes three amphibious ships and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit.
Batmanghelidj said the U.S. military can keep oil flowing, but it is no longer able to guarantee security across the Gulf region, giving Iran leverage in any negotiations. He warned that Iran 'did not wage a scorched earth campaign—but it may yet do so if the current situation persists for too long.'
For now, the numbers show American power can still move oil. But they also show how fragile that stability is when the market depends on force instead of durable peace. Capital rewards clear rules, not open-ended confrontation.
The taxpayer should notice the second-order cost: more ships, more Marines, higher insurance, and a Gulf that remains one drone or missile away from another shock. The market has already voted for flow over disruption; Washington still has to prove it can protect that flow without turning the region into a permanent security bill.
