The numbers come first. Brent crude traded near $79 a barrel early Thursday and West Texas Intermediate hovered around $75, after oil lost 11% across the week's first three sessions — a market signal that traders are pricing in the possibility of resumed energy flows but are not yet betting on a clean resolution.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters Wednesday that a joint statement with Oman is 'under review and in the final drafting stage,' according to a post on Telegram. Negotiations are 'forward-moving,' he said, but added that a deal would be struck only 'if certain third parties do not obstruct this process.' He made no mention of a formal role for Washington, attributing the disruption of traffic through the strait to 'attacks by the US and Israel.'
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was more precise — and more cautious. He told state-run IRNA that Iran and Oman are negotiating a 'temporary route' that would remain active for two to four months, with a significant portion of traffic passing through Iranian territorial waters. 'This understanding does not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,' he said. Iranian state television, citing a person familiar with the matter, added that even an Iran-Oman agreement would not trigger an immediate reopening; that outcome remains contingent 'on a change in US behavior.'
President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that a deal on the strait is 'imminent' and told reporters in Los Angeles that talks are 'moving along very nicely,' adding, 'We'll know in 48 hours.' In a Fox News interview recorded the same day, Trump repeated a threat that if Iran does not 'make a deal, it's going to be too bad.' The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Iran's announcement.
Vice President JD Vance, also speaking on Fox News Wednesday evening, pointed to divisions inside Tehran. 'They have a fractured system, so there are people within their system who want the war to be over. There are also people within their system who are crazy radicals who want the war to continue,' Vance said.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised interview that his country is facing its 'most difficult time since the Islamic Revolution' and that reaching Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is 'very difficult right now.' Khamenei has not been seen or heard publicly since succeeding his father, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
According to the source reporting, Iran has demanded that vessels obtain permission to cross the strait and pay fees to transit, and has attacked ships it deems to be in violation. The US, in turn, has blockaded Iranian ports. The source notes that the issue led to the collapse of a ceasefire and interim peace agreement last month. Despite the elevated hostility, millions of barrels a day have continued to cross the waterway in recent weeks, with Middle Eastern producers running a shuttle program through the Gulf.
CEO Times read: The market has already voted — oil fell hard this week on the prospect of resumed flows, but the fine print from Tehran's own deputy foreign minister tells a different story: a temporary corridor through Iranian territorial waters, fees still on the table, and a Supreme Leader who has gone dark. Capital rewards clear rules, and what Iran is offering is the opposite — a conditional, time-limited arrangement that keeps its leverage intact. Until Washington and Tehran agree on terms that do not hand Tehran a toll booth over one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil, the strait's long-term reliability as a commercial artery remains in question. The midterms are on the clock, and so is the energy market.
